A column on the social automobile by Gerald Croteau
last updated January 18, 2012
Most internet users know what social media is.
But most drivers probably haven't thought about how the internet will revolutionize transportation.
The Google Driverless Car is an example of what is already possible today.
I, like most people, am amazed by the latest technology. Like Sebastian Thrun, I am amazed that traffic accidents are the leading cause of death for young people.
The math is in. Using better technology, traffic would fall by a factor of 3. In America this could translate to a savings of 2.2 billion gallons of gasoline per year.
Car pooling is tricky to organize. Parking spaces aren't linked in with GPS devices. Traffic lights don't optimize themselves based on real world data.
But it doesn't have to be like this.
My name is Gerald and I'll offer my own circumstance as one example. I currently live at Sky Meadow in Nashua, NH, right in the middle of New England. I travel all over New England selling my line of natural stone. I drive a full size Toyota pickup truck with full rear doors. This means that someone, or someone's stuff, should easily be able to get a lift if I could click a button on the dashboard letting the internet know I have extra room.
Now in truth there is a little more to it than that. I might want to know that this person is an upstanding citizen. Doesn't smell. Heck, share the gas money.
But computers could easily sort that out behind the scenes. Facebook could reveal an overlapping circle of friends. Paypal could automate the gas money sharing.
While I am just one driver, there have been countless times I knew I could carpool.
Oil won't last forever. There are over 250 million registered cars in America.
Making it easy to carpool will make people want to do it.
Beyond Social GPS, vehicle automation is being dealt a big hand by technology being developed by Google.
In 2010, Google logged 140,000 miles on a fleet of self-driving cars. As in cruise control not needing a person to steer.
Google retro-fitted eight Toyota Priuses to drive themselves (with a human onboard to monitor) on public roads all over the state of California. Along the ocean, in the mountains, and even right in the cities. Pedestrians, lane changes, on ramps, and everything in-between.
Google did it, because if people aren't stuck in traffic on the way to and from work, they will spend more time searching the internet. The bigger funnel phenomenon.
It just so happens this will make texting at the wheel and drunk driving things of the past. It will even keep the elderly safely on the road.
More important than the ethical reasons, the simple physics means the world's cities can eliminate gridlock and make driving more fuel efficient for everyone.
A robotic cruise control mode like the solution developed by Google engineer Sebastian Thrun, would reduce the cost of fuel and pollution by making more efficient acceleration decisions, and eventually start coordinating with other vehicles. For example, cars could position themselves close together to create the drafting seen with migrating birds. Cars could even start coordinating with traffic lights, or find a parking space ahead of arrival.
More, and more importantly, better overall technology will make people safer. The driver of today is nearly overloaded with distractions, not to mention with challenges of operating under the influence of chemicals, lack of sleep, in-vehicle distractions, or outside devices. No wonder there are 93 traffic fatalities per day in the US, and 1.2 million fatalities worldwide per year. This ignores injuries, and the disproportionate effect on young people.
Automatic cruise control will give people free time to surf the web or even eat breakfast. The choice will be ours but turning a 30 minute commute into free time will feel like a day stretched to 25 hours.
Gridlock is largely a human phenomenon that will be overcome with car-to-car communication.
Bill Ford, seen in the video above, recognizes that global gridlock is a threat to human rights, not just an inconvenience. I lived in Dubai in 2008 and the gridlock was certainly a part of my experience. Sebastian Thrun of Stanford University estimates that driverless cars will allow existing roads to accommodate 4-5 times the number of vehicles.
Driverless cars could be trusted to travel faster than 55 mph. In fact, the benefits of drafting will really be seen at higher speeds where a full size pickup could provide a slipstream for a platoon of vehicles behind it.
Mass transit relies on the hub and spoke model, and people like cars because they give us the freedom to go point to point. The beauty of driverless cars is that they will improve car travel without requiring a whole new lifestyle. For example, swapping subway trains for road platoons will still feature a private cabin. Go ahead and sing.
Almost all travel incorporates a car at some point on the journey, and driverless cars mean that there will be no limits on the elderly, the sick, or even young people under 16, being able to go places in the privacy of a personal vehicle.
As someone trained in economics, I would tell you that a retrofit would be the best deal. However, more importantly Robotic systems will extend the capacities of existing roads and vehicles. Cars built since the mid 90s employ drive-by-wire systems, meaning they are an upgrade away from a Google-style robotic system, rather than a dream requiring a new fleet or re-purposed roads with trolley tracks everywhere.
It was traditionally thought that self-driving would all have the same system. The Google-car demonstrates that driverless is a mode to turn on.
Even if an EMP solar flare event brings chaos to computer chips worldwide, the point is moot. Cars are already dependent on computer-controlled ignition because it prevents toxic vehicle emissions. The best solution now is to optimize the mixed human / computer networks that are already overstressed and suboptimal.
Open standards, interoperability, and privacy rights are important features of the public roads. For example, automated toll collection data is not used without a warrant to monitor suspicious behavior. Likewise, robotic systems will operate on public roads, meaning the public interest is ultimately at stake. A democratic public can and must decide on the best transportation system, and what standards are important. For example, emergency vehicles control traffic lights. In the interest of fuel economy, should such control be extended to vehicles operating in driverless mode if those vehicles independently verify certain criteria.
The first country with driverless vehicles could be a small island in the Caribean, or it may be a populous nation such as Saudi Arabia. Some might argue that the United States, famous for the car and the internet, or Germany and Japan, famous for their contributions to high technology and robotics, would be a natural fit for such technology. However, the first country to adopt will be the first whose public recognizes the benefits.
Self-financing means paying for technology with no out of pocket expenses. Users instead swap use promises or advertising rights. Dubai funded part of its subway system with station naming rights for example. It is safe to assume Google's self driving system is available, not necessarily just for the richest country, but possibly to the country that rallies behind this first. Other revenue sources could be related to carbon tracking, or selling excess capacities of a vehicle, such as a truck that could directly negotiate with customers, or a car whose driver accepted additional passengers.
The United States was founded on the doctrine of warrants before searches. The Patriot Act called in to question some of these assumptions, with folks like Eric Schmidt arguing that asymmetric threats deem surveillance acceptable. One digital privacy document is the Global Network Initiative.
Open source is a bit misleading, because open standards merely account for the collaboration between volunteers, non-profits, government, education, and for-profit companies. These groups are all attempting the difficult challenge of allowing outsiders to build off of a core infrastructure inside the automobile. For example, Ford is bringing apps like Pandora and Twitter into the car.
The principle of equality refers to the moral challenges regarding free movement of goods and people. How is taxation calculated? Is an extra passenger considered income? Additionally, as certain groups like taxi and truck drivers experience job adjustments, what Caldor-Hicks accommodations will be made? How long will they last?
“Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood and probably themselves will not be realized. Make big plans, aim high in hope and work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are gone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency. Remember that our sons and grandsons are going to do things that would stagger us. Let your watchword be order and your beacon beauty. Think big.” Daniel Burnham, Architect of Chicago Tower, 22 stories, 1891, tallest skyscraper in the world.
Carweb.comTM is a copyright publication from Gerald Croteau.